The Weight of Expectations

Jonathan Gannon is one of the betting favourites to win the NFL Coach of the Year award according to BetOnline. On the other hand, Gannon also ranks as a top contender to be the first Head Coach of the year to be fired with most bookies and featured in the top tier of Heed The Call’s annual “Hot Butt Rankings” alongside Brian Daboll, Mike McDaniel and Shane Steichen.

That comes with the territory of being a third year NFL Head Coach. The expectation is that you either step up to the plate and deliver or you step aside.

People who are actually dialled into the daily goings on of the Arizona Cardinals know that, barring genuine disaster, Jonathan Gannon’s job security doesn’t balance on the edge of a blade. However, for the first time during his and Monti Ossenfort’s tenure in the desert, they must truly deal with the weight of expectations.

In 2023, Gannon and Ossenfort took over one of the worst rosters in the entire league with Kyler Murray sidelined for the first 9 games before finding his feet again as an NFL quarterback in the second half of the campaign after he had torn his ACL eleven months earlier.

The season itself was as much of a free hit that you will ever be allowed by the fans and NFL ownership for Gannon and Ossenfort. Their main priority was the future of the organisation rather than the present as they sought to rebuild the roster and instil a strong culture. Every win was a bonus rather than a necessity.

While 2024 ended in disappointment with the Cardinals surrendering their hold on the NFC West, neither Head Coach nor GM were ever at risk, with marked improvement across the entire team as they finished with an 8-9 record. Analysing last season in the cold light of day, away from the emotion of it all, the Arizona Cardinals largely did what was expected of them in 2024.

The context of the two losses to Seattle and the season-ending defeat to Carolina hurt and exposed the Cardinals no doubt. A bit more talent on defence and a bit more consistency from Kyler Murray could have seen the Cardinals win the division.

For the most part, they lost to the better teams, they edged past some of the teams that were on their level, beat the teams they should have beat and put the sorry carcasses of the Chicago Bears and New York Jets on display, like Achilles with Hector in front of the walls of Troy.

It was progress in the process that Ossenfort has been orchestrating. It’s overdone at this point, but it’s apt to chart the Cardinals’ progress against that of the Detroit Lions.

The first year was about culture building. The second was about consolidating. In the third year of the Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes regime, Detroit dominated, winning the NFC North with a 12-5 record and going all the way to the NFC Championship game.

That’s the expectation that many will have of this Arizona Cardinals team. A winning season, divisional honours and a meaningful run in the play-offs.

After heavily investing in the defence during the offseason both in free agency and the draft, to give Nick Rallis the talent to go along with the heart and workrate that have defined his defences so far, there are no more excuses.

With Kyler Murray now firmly removed from an ACL injury, an injury that doesn’t automatically recover to 100% just because he was playing football, there are no more excuses.

With a bevy of promising young talent on both sides of the ball, there are no more excuses.

There are just expectations.

Fans of Arizona sports know better than most that in the realm of expectation, disappointment is King. After all, it’s the hope that kills you.

It is on every person involved with the Arizona Cardinals to carry the weight of those expectations on their shoulders and break that cycle.

There is an expectation that Drew Petzing can open up the passing playbook to make better use of Marvin Harrison Jr., while also continuing to implement his successful running offence, with Nick Rallis expected to keep up his end of the bargain after being given a number of talented veteran pieces on defence.

Both the offence and defence have been projected as top-10 units by various media outlets.

There is an expectation that those veteran additions of Calais Campbell, Dalvin Tomlinson and Josh Sweat will make a significant and immediate impact to the Cardinals’ front seven. There is an expectation that the rushing offence will be just as successful this year, led by James Conner who despite the discourse around ageing running backs, seems to get better with age.

After signing a four-year $76m extension that briefly made him the highest-paid tight end in NFL history earlier this year, the Arizona Cardinals will expect Trey McBride to continue being one of the best tight ends in the league.

There is an expectation that the offensive line will remain one of the most underrated in the entire league despite the loss of previous OL coach Klayton Adams to the Cowboys and the fact that it can be one of the most volatile position groups in football.

In the same breath, there’s an expectation that new OL coach Justin Frye will transfer his successes in college football at Ohio State University to the NFL.

There is an expectation that Paris Johnson Jr. and Garrett Williams will continue their ascent to being considered in the top tier of players at their position this year. Johnson was the 12th highest graded offensive tackle according to PFF in 2024 while Williams shared his spot as 3rd highest graded corner with Trent McDuffie, behind Cooper DeJean and Patrick Surtain II.

There is an expectation that, following in the footsteps of Johnson and Williams, the Cardinals rookie class of 2024 now take the “second-year leap” and establish themselves as legitimate difference makers.

Marvin Harrison Jr’s first year in the NFL would’ve been good enough for almost any other rookie receiver after amassing 885 receiving yards and 8 receiving touchdowns. He was credited with just 1 drop on 116 targets and was 20th league wide for yards per reception (14.3). Unfortunately, MHJ wasn’t any other rookie receiver and for the majority of analysts and fans, he did not live up to expectations.

There will be hope that a year of adjusting to the NFL will help the #4 overall pick thrive in 2025.

Having been used to being one step ahead of almost all of his competition in college, his first year in the pros was clearly a learning curve for Marv. He has to separate better – his two yards of average seperation per route run was the lowest among receivers with 45+ targets according to Next Gen Stats – and he has to be more competitive at the catch point with just a 42.1% contested catch rate (110th amongst all pass catching players last season). The work he has put in during the offseason, stacking on muscle, should help with that.

With another offseason together under their belt, there will be an expectation that the chemistry between Harrison and Murray will improve exponentially. Last year, Murray sent 45 “uncatchable” passes to Harrison, the most in the league. While there was some improvement in the final stages of the season, with MHJ catching 62.5% of his targets in the final 3 games, both players know they have to get more in tune.

Max Melton, Isaiah Adams and Trey Benson will all be expected to turn the flashes of brilliance they showed during their rookie year into consistent production now that the training wheels are off.

There is hope that Darius Robinson can make the necessary impact that is expected of a first-rounder now that he has recovered from the calf injury that disrupted his first year.

Dadrion Taylor-Demerson will be expected to reward the faith shown in him by the coaching staff with game-changing moments. Gannon told reporters that one of the reasons that the Cardinals utilise a lot of three safety looks is to “get Rabbit on the field” due to his play-making abilities.

Tip Reiman will be expected to again bring the violence in the blocking game, with the former Illinois man a key cog in Petzing’s offensive scheme.

Elijah Jones, Xavier Weaver, Xavier Thomas and Christian Jones (when fit) will all be expected to take any opportunity that comes their way throughout the season.

Expectations may be slightly tempered for Walter Nolen as he starts the season on IR but Will Johnson will have to deal with being thrust into the deep end as CB1 immediately while Jordan Burch has created his own expectations after some exciting outings in preseason.

As with any organisation, the greatest expectations for the season will fall on the shoulders of the quarterback, as Kyler Murray enters his seventh year. Murray’s 2024 was a divisive one.

He finished 11th in total passing yards (3851), 9th for passes that resulted in first downs (191), 7th in completions (372) and completion percentage (68.8) and 9th in QBR (63.4). Murray showed more composure in the pocket and he was also 4th in QB rushing yards (572).

However, his 21 passing touchdowns were his lowest amount as since his rookie season (ACL years aside), he struggled mightily against pressure, most noticeably in the two losses against the Seahawks and again, oversaw a second-half of the season collapse.

There can be an argument made that a lot of his positive passing stats were the result of a more conservative approach, something that has had to happen given Murray’s struggles with deep passes over the past 3 seasons. He has thrown 68 passes of 25+ air yards in that time period and completed just 12 of them.

His 17.6% completion rate ranks 41 out of 41 eligible quarterbacks. Some of that is down to the talent around him in that time period but Kyler Murray has to be more of a downfield threat. He knows it and whether intentionally or not, there have been multiple social media clips of him zinging deep balls to MHJ this offseason.

Kyler has expressed a desire to be more of a threat with his legs too, saying that he wants to be a “dual threat” through and through on his latest YouTube video where he also referenced not wanting to talk about “what’s at stake this season”.

What is at stake for Kyler Murray this year may be his future in the NFL.

In that video, the quarterback also made a statement that will have resonated with Arizona sports fans noting that he was “tired of being average, we ain’t done shit in the league”.

That’s the expectations for the Cardinals this season. No more bad, no more average. Go win and win well.

Those expectations start today against the New Orleans Saints. Even a win will not be enough for some fans against a team favoured to be the worst in the NFL this year. It has been a case of “by how many” rather than if the Cards will win in some circles online.

While it can be a misleading stat, the Cardinals are currently positioned as having the joint-5th easiest strength of schedule, a lot of which is front-loaded into the first half of the season as they face the Saints, Panthers, Titans and Colts before the bye week, so fans will expect a good start from the team.

Without the context of the upcoming season, it’s difficult to define what a successful season looks like. Some will want the NFC West title. Some will say making the playoffs will satisfy their expectations while others will want to compete rather than just make up the numbers.

Wherever you stand, the one thing we can all agree on is that expectations are high for the Arizona Cardinals this year. Nothing ever goes smoothly in the NFL, so with that will come pressure and plenty of outside noise.

How Jonathan Gannon and co. deal with the weight of those expectations will define the season.

Image Credits: Cards Wire, Arizona Cardinals, Getty Images, Rob Schumacher, Mark J. Rebilas – Imagn Images

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